Mind Versus Trout: Navigating Fact, Fiction, and Fish Behavior

Fishing strategy is influenced by how our brains process information. Cognitive biases can shape decisions on the water, sometimes leading to success, other times causing us to stick with the wrong plan. Recognizing these patterns can help anglers adjust their approach, think more objectively, and make smarter choices when conditions change.

Story by Nick Ohlrich & Photos by Nick Ohlrich and Alaska Drift Away

Originally published in the August/September 2024 edition of Fish Alaska magazine.

The newest boat, most expensive rod, best casting fly line, or secret pattern is completely worthless if you cannot think rationally about how, when, or where to use them. Decision making is one of the most important tools in your arsenal for having a productive day on the water. Whether it involves switching patterns, presentation, location, or all three, anglers are relying on conscious decision making. Or are they? How much emotion are you putting into your next move, and what underlying factors may be making decisions for you? Cognitive biases could very well be taking you off the bite.

The Power of Decision Making

According to Wikipedia, a cognitive bias is, “A systematic pattern of deviation from norm or rationality in judgment. Individuals create their own ‘subjective reality’ from their perception of the input. An individual’s construction of reality, not the objective input, may dictate their behavior in the world. Thus, cognitive biases may sometimes lead to perceptual distortion, inaccurate judgment, illogical interpretation, and irrationality.”

While this definition is a bit chewy, two things really jump out for me: “subjective reality” and “objective input.” When the bite turns off, figuring out what to do next can easily result in manufacturing a subjective reality (what your mind makes up) and ignoring the objective input (what is really happening) that can be observed in your surroundings.

Understanding Cognitive Biases in Fishing

Depending on what you read, there are at least 175 different cognitive biases affecting the way we think and interact in the world (betterhumans.pub). Strong forces are at play, whether trying to catch a rainbow trout or when to sell a losing stock. It’s probably not too important to understand all of them, but knowing your decision-making process may have holes in it will definitely put more fish in the net and reduce mistakes in other areas of your life.

As a guide, my clients typically like it when I’m right. The rewards can be seen in bent rods and smiles. However, guiding on the Middle Kenai means navigating a competitive workplace, managing changing weather and water conditions, teaching people with varying skills, and having to consistently make rational decisions based on objective input, not subjective reality, while running a power boat on a swift-moving river.

Going into my 20th season guiding the Kenai and Kasilof rivers, I have made an incredible number of decisions trying to put my guests in the best position possible to maximize their day. Regardless of the outcome, I always peel back the layers of how it went by looking for what I can do better, what is working, and knowing why my strategy worked or did not. This reflection helps prepare and fine tune my future strategy. Poor choices sting; however, staying emotionally unattached will give you an objective lens to help piece together the events that led to your decisions. Hubris and finger pointing can easily cloud judgment on why your day was good or poor.

Learning from Experience

Often, my articles stem from ideas or experiences from the previous season, focusing on a specific day or event that unfolded. I cannot recall a particular day or season where navigating the six cognitive biases I selected come to mind. Instead, it’s a culmination of many days and conditions over the years. I have certainly been guilty of falling victim to all the biases mentioned, and likely to several in a single day. Hopefully, with some practice and additional awareness you can avoid making decisions based on unconscious emotion and hang around the rational campfire.

Confirmation Bias

“Confirmation bias describes our underlying tendency to notice, focus on, and give greater credence to evidence that fits with our existing beliefs.” (thedecisionlab.com/biases/confirmation-bias)

This bias is the perfect diving board into the meat and potatoes of navigating your thought process. Having a plan of where you are going to start and what pattern you are going to use is essential to a productive day on the water. Common sense suggests using what you know from previous outings is a great starting point to check both above-mentioned boxes.

Let’s say it’s late August on the Middle Kenai and you want to hunt river pigs. Last year you had some success and hooked a good one in the Dunes around the same time frame. You’ve heard the current fishing is ok, but nothing noteworthy. Going with what you know, all signs point to starting in the Dunes. Fired up and frothy, you start fishing with the same bead and same spots as the past year. After an hour, a couple of small dollies and one small rainbow is not the stoke you were looking for. A quick check of your surroundings shows not as many boats in the Dunes as last year, and not quite the same amount of catching from you and other boats. Now what?

Avoiding Bias in Decision Making

Many times, using prior knowledge works out well and you can get on the bite and hopefully stay on it all day. The slope starts to get slippery when the original plan is not producing. How anglers decide to pivot from there can open the gate to making the next move based on confirmation bias. The big question to ask yourself in this situation is how much time to donate to the original plan and pattern. Changing pattern or location too quickly turns into a naughty habit I call “getting caught in the change up.” However, remaining stubborn and seeing how hard and long you can beat a dead horse can produce the same results as changing too often.

One of the best ways to tame confirmation bias is when you are planning your day, have three patterns selected and the order in which you are going to fish them. Do the same for the zone you are going to start in, and which spots you will move to after. Set a time allotment for how long you are going to fish each spot, and most importantly ask yourself why this plan makes sense.

Keep in mind as your day progresses that what you observe around you may contradict your preplanned tactics. It is important to be flexible and adjust to the current conditions, but you must remain rational and find inversions to your ideas before committing to an idea. Trying to prove yourself wrong is the ultimate contingency for a plan.

Sunk Cost Fallacy

“The Sunk Cost Fallacy describes our tendency to follow through on an endeavor if we have already invested time, effort, or money into it, whether or not the current costs outweigh the benefits.” (thedecisionlab.com/biases/the-sunk-cost-fallacy)

For stubborn anglers, sunk cost fallacy can be a major player. Having too much confidence in knowing what you think you know, especially if you have had success in a zone or specific time of year, can lead to burning precious time beating a dead horse.

The Role of Confirmation Bias

Confirmation bias can often be a catalyst for sunk cost fallacy. Prior success with a pattern or location can, as the definition of confirmation bias says, give greater credence to evidence that fits our existing beliefs, keeping you tied to a belief that the spot or pattern will turn on if you stay longer. Once again, this is why it is so important to have a plan with several moves baked in before your boat hits the water.

Life would be boring if it were black and white. Your pattern either works or it does not, the spot has fish biting, or it does not. The so-so bite is where the water gets muddier for anglers who are looking specifically for big fish. The mind games increase if you are catching fish in several locations and on several patterns, but producing nothing big.

Resetting Your Approach

If you find yourself in this position, it’s best to go to shore and take a break, come up with a new set of patterns and/or locations to try, using what you learned from the day and past experiences. Remember to ask yourself why this plan makes sense. It is very important to be able to rationalize changes even if later you are wrong in the outcome.

For confirmation and sunk cost fallacy biases, a very fine line exists, often indistinguishable, between subjective reality and objective input. You should always question if your decision to change your program is actually yours or if one or both of these biases are masking themselves as your perceived objective input.

The Bandwagon Effect

“The bandwagon effect refers to our habit of adopting certain behaviors or beliefs because many other people do the same.” (thedecisionlab.com/biases/bandwagon-effect).

The bandwagon effect is one of the easiest biases to call yourself out on. Anglers having a tough day can easily jump on the wagon of others who appear to be catching fish. For novice anglers this can be a good thing, but for those hunting pigs you may or may not be getting the right information.

Staying Focused on Your Strategy

It is important to pay attention to what others are doing and if they are catching or not, but be careful not to have a knee-jerk reaction to changing your strategy because of what everyone else is doing. Inadvertently taking yourself off the path to Walter in exchange for stacking numbers is easy to do. Typically, your first plan is your best plan, and if it is working, keep your focus on your strategy rather than changing because of how you think others are doing. Sometimes the plan involves fishing amongst the populous, and if this is the case, look how you can maximize the best drift through the area.

Choice Overload/Decision Fatigue

“Choice overload, also known as overchoice, choice paralysis, or the paradox of choice, describes how people get overwhelmed when they are presented with many options. While we tend to assume that more choice is a good thing, research has shown that, in many cases, we have a harder time choosing from a larger array of options.” (thedecisionlab.com/biases/choice-overload-bias)

“Decision fatigue describes how our decision-making gets worse as we make additional choices and our cognitive abilities get worn out. Decision fatigue is the reason we feel overwhelmed when we have too many choices to make.” (thedecisionlab.com/biases/decision-fatigue).

Managing Choice Overload

I have never counted the number of honey holes from the Dunes to Bing’s, but would guess it’s over a hundred. At Drift Away Fishing, we have over 130 egg patterns which all catch big fish depending on time of year and conditions; the same is true for the multiple boxes of flesh and streamers we carry each day. If I handed you a map with all the honey holes marked and gave you my tackle box would this help or hurt? My guess is it would add too much complexity to your day.

I remember the winter before my first year of guiding, I decided to make a ton of egg- and flesh patterns so I would have plenty of options to choose from if the bite was tough. Like most new guides, my confidence far exceeded my experience. Getting caught in the changeup was a consequence of having more patterns than my knowledge base allowed. By my third year I was proud of how few patterns I could use and produce big results. The caveat is big ‘bows on the Middle were dumb as a bag of hammers back then and 100+ patterns weren’t necessary nor was there need for sophisticated patterns. The ‘bows are much more educated now and variety is important.

Reducing Decision Fatigue

For those who are new to the Kenai, start with a few fresh- and old-egg patterns in just two sizes. This will get you catching fish and maybe hooking some good ones. But most importantly, it will reduce your choices. There is such a thing as too many choices.

Out of the 130 patterns, I probably use a dozen on a regular basis and could get by with those indefinitely. The rest are a product of constantly trying to be better at consistently hooking big fish. Each season brings situations where a slight tweak to preexisting patterns is needed or forces us to come up with a new pattern to stay on the big ‘bows. It’s not uncommon that a pattern we made for a specific condition only worked for that year and may become dormant for several seasons until a similar situation emerges, needing it to put pigs in the pen again. Add in 20 years of guiding and it’s understandable why we have so many patterns.

As I mentioned, coming up with a plan before you get to the launch and making thoughtful adjustments once you are fishing, will keep your on-the-fly decision making sound when the bite turns off. If I’m planning on covering a ton of water, I’ll have spots and patterns preselected. For example, what I fish in the Dunes is probably different than what I’ll use several miles downriver. Reducing your choices and focusing on the few you selected will help ward off the choice overload bias. If you are having a tough day, it is very important to not get caught in the changeup.

Mobility and Overchoice

Mobility can have the same effect as too many pattern options. A power boat is a great advantage but allows anglers to run around the river chasing greener grass. Most of the best trout anglers started in drift boats, where mastering running a perfect drift, and timing, was essential to hooking big fish. Fishing your powerboat like a drift boat will reduce the urge to chase greener grass.

Anchoring Bias

“The anchoring bias is a cognitive bias that causes us to rely heavily on the first piece of information we are given about a topic. When we are setting plans or making estimates about something, we interpret newer information from the reference point of our anchor instead of seeing it objectively. This can skew our judgment and prevent us from updating our plans or predictions as much as we should.” (thedecisionlab.com/biases/anchoring-bias)

Anchoring bias can often sit around the same campfire as confirmation bias. If you hear the Dunes are firing off and folks have been hooking good fish on fresh eight-millimeter beads, in the past you have done well on fresh eight-millimeter beads, and you are planning on fishing in a few days, starting in the Dunes with fresh eight-millimeter beads seems logical.

Keep in mind that one day—let alone several days—is more than enough time for the spawn cycle or seasonal trend to switch, causing ‘bows to key in on a different pattern and potentially change locations. Or a weather- or water event can transpire, altering food location or bite behavior.

Allocate a set amount of time to the place you heard was fishing well or had luck in the past. If the tip you received is no longer accurate or your past experience is not the same as the present and change is needed, remember to come up with a new strategy and several contingencies for that strategy.

Action Bias

“The action bias describes our tendency to favor action over inaction, often to our benefit. However, there are times when we feel compelled to act, even if there’s no evidence that it will lead to a better outcome than doing nothing would. Our tendency to respond with action as a default, automatic reaction, even without solid rationale to support it, has been termed the action bias.” (thedecisionlab.com/biases/action-bias)

I can’t remember a time when someone referred to me as fast. My rebuttal is, “The slower you move, the more you observe; the more you observe, the more aware you become.” To further promote my sloth-like tendencies when I am not sure what to do next, I do nothing or change nothing. Nothingness has put some big ‘bows in the net. Many times, after a bite has died or not picked up and I cannot come up with a better idea, I’ll go to shore and take a break. If after some time I still can’t come up with a better, rationally thought-out plan, I go back to doing what I was doing.

Balancing Action and Inaction

Action bias is a two-sided coin where both sides can be wrong. On one side we have manufacturing a call to action, which is often harnessing the power of emotion as we have come to a crossroad where our previous plan is not working and doing something is better than doing nothing. On the other side we have the disciplined approach of doing nothing. It is much harder to do nothing, however, extended nothingness can turn into a confirmation- or anchoring bias, leading into sunk cost fallacy depending on the level of conviction about the previous plan, which is no longer working or appears to be no longer working. Experience and learning from mistakes and successes while being aware of cognitive biases and its effect on decision making are the tools required to keep action bias on a leash.

Tying it Together

I must admit, I have no formal training in psychology or any field ending in -ology. But after two decades of staring at rod tips and bobbers, analyzing why they are not bending or bobbing, has led me on a fascinating journey of learning about fish and human behavior.

I’m not sure if it’s possible to greatly increase your understanding of fish behavior if you are not aware of your own. As the behavior of fish and their environment changes, you need to be aware of managing your behavior to stay on the bite and being able to separate fact from fiction.

Visit thedecisionlab.com/biases for the definitions of the biases I chose to write about in this article.

Nick Ohlrich is co-owner/guide of Alaska Drift Away Fishing and contributing editor to Fish Alaska magazine. For more information or a psychological trout evaluation check out their website at guidekenairiver.com and kenairainbowtrout.com.

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